Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 30Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Gillette Stadium
New England Revolution
1–0FULL TIME
Chicago Fire
44% New
23% Draw
33% Chicago
OUR PICK
New England Revolution to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.25
Expected goals
1.78 – 1.50
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.25X4.3723.06
Goals 2.5Over1.57Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.55NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.57
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.55
GG
65%
Double chance@1.30
12
77%
New England Revolution form
LWWWWH Inter Miami1–2
H New York Red Bulls3–2
A Philadelphia Union1–2
H Chicago Fire1–0
A FC Cincinnati2–3
Chicago Fire form
WDWLLA Colorado Rapids2–4
H Orlando City SC2–2
A Atlanta United FC2–3
A New England Revolution1–0
H Philadelphia Union1–3
Head to head
2
New
1
Draw
2
Chicago
Oct 2026New England Revolution – Chicago Fire1–0
Sept 2026Chicago Fire – New England Revolution1–2
Oct 2025New England Revolution – Chicago Fire2–2
Sept 2025Chicago Fire – New England Revolution3–2
May 2025New England Revolution – Chicago Fire1–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes New England Revolution slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.25 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.78 for New England Revolution, 1.50 for Chicago Fire), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.