Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
76%
SAUPro League · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · King Khalid Sports City
NEOM
5th · 22 pts0–1FULL TIME
Al-Ettifaq
7th · 19 pts59% NEOM
23% Draw
18% Al-Ettifaq
OUR PICK
NEOM to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.70
Expected goals
1.82 – 0.91
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.70X4.4025.41
Goals 2.5Over1.95Under1.93
Both scoreGG2.00NG1.89
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@2.00
GG
50%
Double chance@1.23
1X
82%
Season stats
NEOMAl-Ettifaq1.5Goals per game1.5
0.8Conceded per game1.4
1.83Points per game1.58
58%Win rate42%
8Goal difference1
7Form, last 5 (pts)8
NEOM form
WLWLLA Al Diriyah1–2
A Al-Shabab3–1
H Abha2–0
A Al-Nassr1–0
H Al-Ettifaq0–1
Al-Ettifaq form
DLWLWA Al Taawon1–1
A Erbil3–0
A Al Kholood0–3
H Al-Ittihad FC1–4
A NEOM0–1
Head to head
0
NEOM
2
Draw
1
Al-Ettifaq
Oct 2026NEOM – Al-Ettifaq0–1
May 2026NEOM – Al-Ettifaq1–1
Jan 2026Al-Ettifaq – NEOM0–0
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes NEOM clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.70 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.82 for NEOM, 0.91 for Al-Ettifaq), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NEOM sit 5th on 22 points; Al-Ettifaq are 7th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.