Over 1.5 goals@1.46
Over 1.5
69%
SAUPro League · Matchday 11Saturday, 24 October 2026 · King Khalid Sport City Stadium
NEOM
5th · 22 pts2–0FULL TIME
Abha
18th · 3 pts66% NEOM
22% Draw
12% Abha
OUR PICK
NEOM to win
Model probability 66% · fair odds
1.51
Expected goals
1.79 – 0.59
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.51X4.5628.59
Goals 2.5Over2.25Under1.74
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.59
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Under 2.5
58%
Both teams to score@1.59
NG
63%
Double chance@1.13
1X
88%
Season stats
NEOMAbha1.5Goals per game0.6
0.8Conceded per game1.7
1.83Points per game0.27
58%Win rate0%
8Goal difference-12
7Form, last 5 (pts)2
NEOM form
WLWLLA Al Diriyah1–2
A Al-Shabab3–1
H Abha2–0
A Al-Nassr1–0
H Al-Ettifaq0–1
Abha form
DLLLDH Al-Ittihad FC1–1
H Al-Faisaly FC0–1
A NEOM2–0
A Al-Qadisiyah FC2–1
A Al Diriyah0–0
Head to head
2
NEOM
1
Draw
0
Abha
Oct 2026NEOM – Abha2–0
Jan 2025NEOM – Abha2–2
Aug 2024Abha – NEOM0–2
Pro League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al-Hilal Saudi FC11+2330
2Al-Qadisiyah FC12+2028
3Al-Nassr11+1728
4Al-Ittihad FC11+1024
5NEOM12+822
6Al-Ahli Jeddah11+921
7Al-Ettifaq12+119
8Al Diriyah12-315
9Al Khaleej Saihat12-515
10Al Shabab11+514
Match preview
Our model makes NEOM clear favourites, giving them a 66% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.4 goals in total (1.79 for NEOM, 0.59 for Abha), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NEOM sit 5th on 22 points; Abha are 18th on 3.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.