Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Estadio Victoria
Necaxa
17th · 10 pts1–1FULL TIME
FC Juarez
18th · 8 pts57% Necaxa
22% Draw
20% FC
OUR PICK
Necaxa to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.03
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.75X4.4724.90
Goals 2.5Over1.80Under2.14
Both scoreGG1.84NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Over 2.5
56%
Both teams to score@1.84
GG
54%
Double chance@1.26
1X
80%
Season stats
NecaxaFC Juarez1.1Goals per game0.8
1.9Conceded per game2.3
0.67Points per game0.53
13%Win rate13%
-12Goal difference-22
2Form, last 5 (pts)5
Necaxa form
DLLDLH FC Juarez1–1
A Guadalajara Chivas1–0
H Atlas0–2
A CF Pachuca3–3
H Club America2–4
FC Juarez form
WDLLDH Club Queretaro3–1
A Necaxa1–1
H Atlante FC0–1
A Cruz Azul5–0
H Club Tijuana1–1
Head to head
2
Necaxa
3
Draw
0
FC
Oct 2026Necaxa – FC Juarez1–1
Feb 2026FC Juarez – Necaxa1–2
Sept 2025Necaxa – FC Juarez1–1
Apr 2025FC Juarez – Necaxa2–2
Aug 2024Necaxa – FC Juarez3–0
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Necaxa clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.75 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.88 for Necaxa, 1.03 for FC Juarez), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Necaxa sit 17th on 10 points; FC Juarez are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.