Over 1.5 goals@1.24
Over 1.5
81%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 16Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Estadio Victoria
Necaxa
17th · 10 pts02:00KICK-OFF WAT
Club Tijuana
6th · 22 pts28% Necaxa
23% Draw
48% Club
OUR PICK
Club Tijuana to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.06
Expected goals
1.29 – 1.76
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.55X4.2822.06
Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Over 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
NecaxaClub Tijuana1.1Goals per game1.7
1.9Conceded per game1.4
0.71Points per game1.47
14%Win rate33%
-11Goal difference4
2Form, last 5 (pts)7
Necaxa form
DLLDLH FC Juarez1–1
A Guadalajara Chivas1–0
H Atlas0–2
A CF Pachuca3–3
H Club America2–4
Club Tijuana form
DDWDDA Monterrey3–3
A Club America1–1
H Santos Laguna4–1
A Toluca2–2
H Puebla0–0
Head to head
3
Necaxa
0
Draw
2
Club
Mar 2026Necaxa – Club Tijuana3–0
Sept 2025Club Tijuana – Necaxa3–0
Apr 2025Club Tijuana – Necaxa1–2
Oct 2024Necaxa – Club Tijuana1–2
Apr 2024Club Tijuana – Necaxa2–3
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Atlas15027
4Cruz Azul14+926
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon14+322
8Monterrey14+521
9U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
10Club Queretaro14-320
Match preview
Our model makes Club Tijuana slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.29 for Necaxa, 1.76 for Club Tijuana), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Necaxa sit 17th on 10 points; Club Tijuana are 6th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.