Over 1.5 goals@1.18
Over 1.5
85%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Estadio Victoria
Necaxa
17th · 10 pts0–2FULL TIME
Atlas
4th · 27 pts36% Necaxa
23% Draw
42% Atlas
OUR PICK
Atlas to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
1.61 – 1.75
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.80X4.3922.41
Goals 2.5Over1.53Under2.70
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.53
Over 2.5
65%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
NecaxaAtlas1.1Goals per game1.7
1.9Conceded per game1.7
0.67Points per game1.80
13%Win rate53%
-12Goal difference0
2Form, last 5 (pts)10
Necaxa form
LDLLDA Santos Laguna1–0
H FC Juarez1–1
A Guadalajara Chivas1–0
H Atlas0–2
A CF Pachuca3–3
Atlas form
WWLWDA Atletico San Luis0–1
H Puebla4–3
H Club America2–5
A Necaxa0–2
H Guadalajara Chivas1–1
Head to head
0
Necaxa
1
Draw
4
Atlas
Oct 2026Necaxa – Atlas0–2
Jul 2026Atlas – Necaxa0–0
Jan 2026Necaxa – Atlas0–1
Dec 2025Atlas – Necaxa5–3
Sept 2025Atlas – Necaxa3–2
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Necaxa 36%, the draw 23%, Atlas 42%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.61 for Necaxa, 1.75 for Atlas), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Necaxa sit 17th on 10 points; Atlas are 4th on 27.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.