Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
WORUEFA Europa League · League Stage - 2Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Stadion de Goffert
NEC Nijmegen
20th · 4 pts1–1FULL TIME
Levski Sofia
17th · 4 pts37% NEC
23% Draw
40% Levski
OUR PICK
Levski Sofia to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.73
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.67X4.4122.51
Goals 2.5Over1.52Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.50NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.52
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.50
GG
67%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
NEC NijmegenLevski Sofia1.7Goals per game1.0
2.7Conceded per game1.0
1.33Points per game1.33
33%Win rate33%
-3Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
NEC Nijmegen form
LDWDDA Heerenveen1–0
H Groningen2–2
A Dinamo Zagreb2–4
H Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Levski Sofia1–1
Levski Sofia form
WDWWDA Dunav Ruse0–1
A Arda Kardzhali1–1
A Plzen1–2
A Spartak Pleven0–2
A NEC Nijmegen1–1
Head to head
0
NEC
1
Draw
0
Levski
Oct 2026NEC Nijmegen – Levski Sofia1–1
UEFA Europa League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Benfica3+89
2Bayer Leverkusen3+89
3Bournemouth3+79
4Ferencvarosi TC3+69
5Olympiakos Piraeus3+39
6Union St. Gilloise3+77
7Juventus3+67
8Beşiktaş3+47
9Sunderland3+27
10AZ Alkmaar3+46
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: NEC Nijmegen 37%, the draw 23%, Levski Sofia 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.67 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.73 for Levski Sofia), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NEC Nijmegen sit 20th on 4 points; Levski Sofia are 17th on 4.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.