Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
90%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 10Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Stadion de Goffert
NEC Nijmegen
13th · 11 pts2–2FULL TIME
Groningen
8th · 15 pts41% NEC
21% Draw
38% Groningen
OUR PICK
NEC Nijmegen to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.45
Expected goals
1.96 – 1.89
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.45X4.7322.63
Goals 2.5Over1.35Under3.63
Both scoreGG1.37NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.35
Over 2.5
74%
Both teams to score@1.37
GG
73%
Double chance@1.27
12
79%
Season stats
NEC NijmegenGroningen1.5Goals per game2.4
1.7Conceded per game2.1
1.00Points per game1.50
18%Win rate40%
-2Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)8
NEC Nijmegen form
No recent matches.
Groningen form
LDLWWH Emmen0–2
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Ajax2–5
A Excelsior1–5
H PEC Zwolle3–0
Head to head
2
NEC
1
Draw
2
Groningen
Oct 2026NEC Nijmegen – Groningen2–2
May 2026Groningen – NEC Nijmegen2–1
Nov 2025NEC Nijmegen – Groningen2–0
Jul 2025Groningen – NEC Nijmegen1–2
Feb 2025Groningen – NEC Nijmegen2–1
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente10+920
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9GO Ahead Eagles10014
10Cambuur10-312
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: NEC Nijmegen 41%, the draw 21%, Groningen 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.45 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (1.96 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.89 for Groningen), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NEC Nijmegen sit 13th on 11 points; Groningen are 8th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.