Over 1.5 goals@1.25
Over 1.5
80%
NEDEredivisie · Matchday 9Sunday, 18 October 2026 · Stadion de Goffert
NEC Nijmegen
12th · 11 pts2–2FULL TIME
Fortuna Sittard
6th · 19 pts43% NEC
24% Draw
33% Fortuna
OUR PICK
NEC Nijmegen to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.35
Expected goals
1.60 – 1.39
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.35X4.1323.00
Goals 2.5Over1.74Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.67NG2.36
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.74
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.67
GG
60%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
NEC NijmegenFortuna Sittard1.5Goals per game1.6
1.7Conceded per game1.6
1.00Points per game1.73
18%Win rate45%
-2Goal difference0
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
NEC Nijmegen form
LDWDDA Heerenveen1–0
H Groningen2–2
A Dinamo Zagreb2–4
H Fortuna Sittard2–2
H Levski Sofia1–1
Fortuna Sittard form
DDWDDA Feyenoord1–1
A Sparta Rotterdam2–2
H Excelsior1–0
A NEC Nijmegen2–2
H Twente1–1
Head to head
2
NEC
1
Draw
2
Fortuna
Oct 2026NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard2–2
Feb 2026NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard2–3
Aug 2025Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen3–2
Jan 2025NEC Nijmegen – Fortuna Sittard4–1
Aug 2024Fortuna Sittard – NEC Nijmegen0–3
Eredivisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Feyenoord11+2125
2Ajax11+1724
3PSV Eindhoven11+2223
4Twente11+1823
5AZ Alkmaar11+720
6Fortuna Sittard11019
7Heerenveen11+618
8Groningen10+315
9Cambuur11+115
10GO Ahead Eagles11-414
Match preview
Our model makes NEC Nijmegen slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.35 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.60 for NEC Nijmegen, 1.39 for Fortuna Sittard), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NEC Nijmegen sit 12th on 11 points; Fortuna Sittard are 6th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.