Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
BRASerie B · Matchday 33Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Estádio dos Aflitos
Nautico Recife
15th · 46 pts0–2FULL TIME
Vila Nova
3rd · 63 pts33% Nautico
27% Draw
40% Vila
OUR PICK
Vila Nova to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.50
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.34
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.00X3.7522.50
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.87
Both scoreGG1.94NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.87
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.94
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
Nautico RecifeVila Nova1.1Goals per game1.4
1.3Conceded per game1.1
1.28Points per game1.75
33%Win rate50%
-6Goal difference14
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Nautico Recife form
WLDLLH Avai1–0
A Juventude4–0
A Goias0–0
H Vila Nova0–2
H Novorizontino0–2
Vila Nova form
DLDWDH Juventude2–2
A São Bernardo3–2
H Novorizontino2–2
A Nautico Recife0–2
H Cuiaba0–0
Head to head
1
Nautico
0
Draw
4
Vila
Oct 2026Nautico Recife – Vila Nova0–2
Jun 2026Vila Nova – Nautico Recife4–3
Mar 2023Nautico Recife – Vila Nova2–1
Aug 2022Nautico Recife – Vila Nova1–2
May 2022Vila Nova – Nautico Recife2–0
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Novorizontino36+3367
2Juventude36+2265
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC36+1262
6CRB36+355
7Goias36-355
8Sport Recife36+955
9Atletico Goianiense36+955
10São Bernardo36+1152
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Nautico Recife 33%, the draw 27%, Vila Nova 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.50 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.20 for Nautico Recife, 1.34 for Vila Nova), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nautico Recife sit 15th on 46 points; Vila Nova are 3rd on 63.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.