Over 1.5 goals@1.36
Over 1.5
74%
BRASerie B · Matchday 32Thursday, 8 October 2026 · Estádio dos Aflitos
Nautico Recife
14th · 46 pts0–2FULL TIME
Novorizontino
2nd · 64 pts23% Nautico
25% Draw
52% Novorizontino
OUR PICK
Novorizontino to win
Model probability 52% · fair odds
1.93
Expected goals
1.00 – 1.62
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.28X4.0321.93
Goals 2.5Over1.93Under1.95
Both scoreGG1.97NG1.93
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.95
Under 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.97
GG
51%
Double chance@1.30
X2
77%
Season stats
Nautico RecifeNovorizontino1.1Goals per game1.8
1.3Conceded per game0.9
1.28Points per game1.83
33%Win rate51%
-6Goal difference32
4Form, last 5 (pts)13
Nautico Recife form
WLDLLH Avai1–0
A Juventude4–0
A Goias0–0
H Vila Nova0–2
H Novorizontino0–2
Novorizontino form
WWDWWH Operario-PR2–1
A Atletico Goianiense0–1
A Vila Nova2–2
H Ponte Preta5–1
A Nautico Recife0–2
Head to head
1
Nautico
1
Draw
2
Novorizontino
Oct 2026Nautico Recife – Novorizontino0–2
Jun 2026Novorizontino – Nautico Recife2–2
Oct 2022Novorizontino – Nautico Recife6–0
Jul 2022Nautico Recife – Novorizontino3–1
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Juventude36+2265
2Novorizontino35+3264
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10Operario-PR35-151
Match preview
Our model makes Novorizontino slight favourites, giving them a 52% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.93 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.00 for Nautico Recife, 1.62 for Novorizontino), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nautico Recife sit 14th on 46 points; Novorizontino are 2nd on 64.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.