Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
BRASerie B · Matchday 36Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Estadio dos Aflitos
Nautico Recife
14th · 46 pts1–0FULL TIME
Avai
17th · 37 pts46% Nautico
27% Draw
26% Avai
OUR PICK
Nautico Recife to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.16
Expected goals
1.37 – 0.96
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.16X3.6523.80
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.05NG1.85
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.85
NG
54%
Double chance@1.36
1X
74%
Season stats
Nautico RecifeAvai1.1Goals per game0.9
1.3Conceded per game1.3
1.28Points per game1.03
33%Win rate28%
-6Goal difference-13
4Form, last 5 (pts)7
Nautico Recife form
WLDLLH Avai1–0
A Juventude4–0
A Goias0–0
H Vila Nova0–2
H Novorizontino0–2
Avai form
LLDWWA Nautico Recife1–0
H Botafogo SP0–2
H Athletic Club0–0
A Cuiaba0–1
H Londrina2–1
Head to head
1
Nautico
1
Draw
3
Avai
Oct 2026Nautico Recife – Avai1–0
Jul 2026Avai – Nautico Recife2–0
Nov 2021Nautico Recife – Avai1–2
Aug 2021Avai – Nautico Recife2–0
Nov 2020Nautico Recife – Avai2–2
Serie B table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Juventude36+2265
2Novorizontino35+3264
3Vila Nova36+1463
4Criciuma36+862
5Fortaleza EC35+1261
6CRB35+455
7Sport Recife36+955
8Atletico Goianiense35+954
9Goias35-452
10Operario-PR35-151
Match preview
Our model makes Nautico Recife slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 27% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.37 for Nautico Recife, 0.96 for Avai), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nautico Recife sit 14th on 46 points; Avai are 17th on 37.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.