Over 1.5 goals@1.12
Over 1.5
89%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 29Thursday, 15 October 2026 · Geodis Park
Nashville SC
4–0FULL TIME
Sporting Kansas City
15th · 23 pts86% Nashville
9% Draw
4% Sporting
OUR PICK
Nashville SC to win
Model probability 86% · fair odds
1.16
Expected goals
3.17 – 0.61
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.16X10.53223.53
Goals 2.5Over1.38Under3.37
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.38
Over 2.5
72%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.04
1X
96%
Nashville SC form
WDWDWH New York Red Bulls3–2
H Philadelphia Union0–0
A CF Montreal0–2
A San Jose Earthquakes1–1
H Sporting Kansas City4–0
Sporting Kansas City form
DLLLLH FC Dallas1–1
A Minnesota United FC3–1
H Austin1–2
H Real Salt Lake1–3
A Nashville SC4–0
Head to head
4
Nashville
0
Draw
1
Sporting
Oct 2026Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas City4–0
Jan 2024Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas City2–1
Sept 2023Sporting Kansas City – Nashville SC0–3
Jun 2022Nashville SC – Sporting Kansas City1–2
Apr 2022Sporting Kansas City – Nashville SC1–2
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo33+151
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Portland Timbers33-143
9Colorado Rapids33-143
10Seattle Sounders33-343
Match preview
Our model makes Nashville SC clear favourites, giving them a 86% chance of winning against 9% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.16 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.8 goals in total (3.17 for Nashville SC, 0.61 for Sporting Kansas City), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.