Over 1.5 goals@1.20
Over 1.5
83%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 32Thursday, 29 October 2026 · Geodis Park
Nashville SC
0–0FULL TIME
Philadelphia Union
69% Nashville
18% Draw
13% Philadelphia
OUR PICK
Nashville SC to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.46
Expected goals
2.31 – 0.91
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.46X5.5427.52
Goals 2.5Over1.60Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.86NG2.05
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.60
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.86
GG
54%
Double chance@1.15
1X
87%
Nashville SC form
WDWDWH New York Red Bulls3–2
H Philadelphia Union0–0
A CF Montreal0–2
A San Jose Earthquakes1–1
H Sporting Kansas City4–0
Philadelphia Union form
LDLDWA FC Cincinnati1–0
A Nashville SC0–0
H New England Revolution1–2
H Charlotte2–2
A Chicago Fire1–3
Head to head
3
Nashville
2
Draw
0
Philadelphia
Oct 2026Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union0–0
May 2026Philadelphia Union – Nashville SC0–0
Sept 2025Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union3–1
Jul 2025Nashville SC – Philadelphia Union1–0
Mar 2025Philadelphia Union – Nashville SC1–3
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps33+3861
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC33+1347
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders33-343
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Nashville SC clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 18% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (2.31 for Nashville SC, 0.91 for Philadelphia Union), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.