Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
USAMajor League Soccer · Matchday 33Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Geodis Park
Nashville SC
22:30KICK-OFF WAT
New York Red Bulls
79% Nashville
14% Draw
7% New
OUR PICK
Nashville SC to win
Model probability 79% · fair odds
1.27
Expected goals
2.53 – 0.62
Confidence
Very high
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.27X7.03214.22
Goals 2.5Over1.65Under2.42
Both scoreGG2.19NG1.74
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.65
Over 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.74
NG
57%
Double chance@1.08
1X
93%
Nashville SC form
DWDWWH Philadelphia Union0–0
A CF Montreal0–2
A San Jose Earthquakes1–1
H Sporting Kansas City4–0
A Austin1–4
New York Red Bulls form
LWLLWA New England Revolution3–2
H Inter Miami2–0
H Toronto FC0–2
A DC United2–1
H San Diego4–1
Head to head
2
Nashville
2
Draw
1
New
Aug 2026New York Red Bulls – Nashville SC0–1
May 2025Nashville SC – New York Red Bulls2–1
Mar 2025New York Red Bulls – Nashville SC2–0
Jun 2024New York Red Bulls – Nashville SC0–0
Feb 2024Nashville SC – New York Red Bulls0–0
Major League Soccer table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vancouver Whitecaps32+3458
2FC Dallas33+955
3San Jose Earthquakes33+852
4St. Louis City33+1051
5Houston Dynamo32+351
6Los Angeles FC32+1547
7Los Angeles Galaxy33-644
8Colorado Rapids33-143
9Seattle Sounders32+143
10Real Salt Lake33042
Match preview
Our model makes Nashville SC clear favourites, giving them a 79% chance of winning against 14% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (2.53 for Nashville SC, 0.62 for New York Red Bulls), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.