Over 1.5 goals@1.54
Over 1.5
65%
NGANPFL · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Lafia Township Stadium
Nasarawa United
5th · 17 pts2–0FULL TIME
Doma United
12th · 15 pts37% Nasarawa
29% Draw
35% Doma
OUR PICK
Nasarawa United to win
Model probability 37% · fair odds
2.74
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.09
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.74X3.4522.90
Goals 2.5Over2.48Under1.62
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.82
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Under 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.82
NG
55%
Double chance@1.41
12
71%
Season stats
Nasarawa UnitedDoma United1.0Goals per game1.3
0.9Conceded per game1.3
1.55Points per game1.50
45%Win rate40%
1Goal difference0
10Form, last 5 (pts)5
Nasarawa United form
LWWWDA Kano Pillars2–0
H Enyimba1–0
A Inter Lagos0–2
H Doma United2–0
A Shooting Stars0–0
Doma United form
DDLWLH Ikorodu City2–2
H Kun Khalifat FC1–1
A Nasarawa United2–0
H Warri Wolves1–0
A Katsina United2–1
Head to head
1
Nasarawa
0
Draw
0
Doma
Oct 2026Nasarawa United – Doma United2–0
NPFL table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Rivers United11+1018
2Enugu Rangers9+518
3Bendel Insurance10+318
4Kano Pillars11+318
5Nasarawa United11+117
6Plateau United11+416
7Barau FC11+316
8Niger Tornadoes11+116
9Katsina United11-116
10Shooting Stars11+115
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Nasarawa United 37%, the draw 29%, Doma United 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.74 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (1.13 for Nasarawa United, 1.09 for Doma United), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nasarawa United sit 5th on 17 points; Doma United are 12th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.