Over 1.5 goals@1.27
Over 1.5
79%
ITASerie A · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026 · Stadio Diego Armando Maradona
Napoli
8th · 14 pts12:30KICK-OFF WAT
Lazio
1st · 28 pts27% Napoli
24% Draw
49% Lazio
OUR PICKSolo pick of the day
Both teams to score
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.75
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.69
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.65X4.1722.06
Goals 2.5Over1.81Under2.10
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.81
Over 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
NapoliLazio1.7Goals per game2.4
1.3Conceded per game0.8
1.40Points per game2.80
40%Win rate90%
4Goal difference16
7Form, last 5 (pts)15
Napoli form
DWDWLA Juventus0–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
Lazio form
WWWWWH Cagliari2–1
A Sassuolo2–6
H Parma2–1
A Juventus0–3
H Monza3–1
Head to head
1
Napoli
1
Draw
3
Lazio
Apr 2026Napoli – Lazio0–2
Jan 2026Lazio – Napoli0–2
Feb 2025Lazio – Napoli2–2
Dec 2024Napoli – Lazio0–1
Dec 2024Lazio – Napoli3–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Lazio slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.06 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.21 for Napoli, 1.69 for Lazio), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Napoli sit 8th on 14 points; Lazio are 1st on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.