Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
ITASerie A · Matchday 6Saturday, 10 October 2026 · Maradona Stadium
Napoli
8th · 14 pts3–0FULL TIME
Frosinone
6th · 20 pts29% Napoli
22% Draw
49% Frosinone
OUR PICK
Frosinone to win
Model probability 49% · fair odds
2.05
Expected goals
1.47 – 1.95
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.43X4.5522.05
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
NapoliFrosinone1.7Goals per game2.4
1.3Conceded per game1.4
1.40Points per game2.00
40%Win rate60%
4Goal difference10
7Form, last 5 (pts)10
Napoli form
LWDWLA Juventus2–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
Frosinone form
WWDWLH Torino2–0
H Lecce5–1
A Atalanta4–4
H Sassuolo4–2
A Napoli3–0
Head to head
3
Napoli
1
Draw
1
Frosinone
Oct 2026Napoli – Frosinone3–0
Apr 2024Napoli – Frosinone2–2
Dec 2023Napoli – Frosinone0–4
Aug 2023Frosinone – Napoli1–3
Apr 2019Frosinone – Napoli0–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes Frosinone slight favourites, giving them a 49% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.05 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.47 for Napoli, 1.95 for Frosinone), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Napoli sit 8th on 14 points; Frosinone are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.