Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
ITASerie A · Matchday 8Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Maradona Stadium
Napoli
8th · 14 pts3–3FULL TIME
AS Roma
3rd · 24 pts25% Napoli
24% Draw
51% AS
OUR PICK
AS Roma to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.97
Expected goals
1.14 – 1.71
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.94X4.1821.97
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.79NG2.14
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.79
GG
56%
Double chance@1.31
12
76%
Season stats
NapoliAS Roma1.7Goals per game2.8
1.3Conceded per game1.0
1.40Points per game2.40
40%Win rate70%
4Goal difference18
7Form, last 5 (pts)11
Napoli form
DWDWLA Juventus0–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
AS Roma form
WWDWWA Udinese2–5
H Cagliari4–2
A Napoli3–3
H Slovan Bratislava4–0
H Genoa2–0
Head to head
2
Napoli
3
Draw
0
AS
Oct 2026Napoli – AS Roma3–3
Feb 2026Napoli – AS Roma2–2
Nov 2025AS Roma – Napoli0–1
Feb 2025AS Roma – Napoli1–1
Nov 2024Napoli – AS Roma1–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model makes AS Roma slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.97 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.14 for Napoli, 1.71 for AS Roma), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Napoli sit 8th on 14 points; AS Roma are 3rd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.