Over 1.5 goals@1.42
Over 1.5
70%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 9Saturday, 17 October 2026 · Stade de la Beaujoire
Nantes
15th · 9 pts2–3FULL TIME
Dunkerque
12th · 12 pts41% Nantes
27% Draw
32% Dunkerque
OUR PICK
Nantes to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.42
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.13
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.42X3.6923.16
Goals 2.5Over2.10Under1.80
Both scoreGG1.89NG1.99
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.80
Under 2.5
55%
Both teams to score@1.99
NG
50%
Double chance@1.37
12
73%
Season stats
NantesDunkerque1.1Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game1.5
0.82Points per game1.09
18%Win rate27%
-6Goal difference-3
5Form, last 5 (pts)4
Nantes form
DLLDWH Clermont Foot1–1
A Saint Etienne1–0
H Dunkerque2–3
H Reims0–0
A Boulogne1–2
Dunkerque form
LDWLLA Rodez1–0
H Metz1–1
A Nantes2–3
H Annecy0–1
H RAAL La Louvière0–4
Head to head
1
Nantes
0
Draw
1
Dunkerque
Oct 2026Nantes – Dunkerque2–3
Jul 2024Nantes – Dunkerque2–1
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3Nancy11+722
4Reims11+1021
5PAU11+520
6RED Star FC 9311-217
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Nantes 41%, the draw 27%, Dunkerque 32%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.42 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.33 for Nantes, 1.13 for Dunkerque), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nantes sit 15th on 9 points; Dunkerque are 12th on 12.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.