Over 1.5 goals@1.53
Over 1.5
66%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 1Sunday, 11 October 2026
Nairobi United
14th · 4 pts2–2FULL TIME
KCB
2nd · 10 pts29% Nairobi
28% Draw
43% KCB
OUR PICK
KCB to win
Model probability 43% · fair odds
2.34
Expected goals
0.98 – 1.26
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.47X3.5122.34
Goals 2.5Over2.42Under1.63
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.81
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.63
Under 2.5
61%
Both teams to score@1.81
NG
55%
Double chance@1.40
12
72%
Season stats
Nairobi UnitedKCB1.2Goals per game1.6
1.4Conceded per game1.0
0.80Points per game2.00
0%Win rate60%
-1Goal difference3
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
Nairobi United form
DLDDDH Bandari1–1
A Murang'a SEAL3–2
H APS Bomet1–1
A Shabana0–0
H KCB2–2
KCB form
WWLWDA GOR Mahia1–2
H Mombasa Elite3–1
A Posta Rangers FC1–0
H Mathare United1–0
A Nairobi United2–2
Head to head
1
Nairobi
3
Draw
1
KCB
Oct 2026Nairobi United – KCB2–2
May 2026Nairobi United – KCB0–1
Mar 2026Nairobi United – KCB1–1
Jan 2026KCB – Nairobi United0–2
Apr 2025Nairobi United – KCB0–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia5+412
2KCB5+310
3AFC Leopards5+39
4Kenya Police5+18
53K5-18
6Murang'a SEAL5+27
7Tusker3+36
8Migori Youth4+26
9APS Bomet5+26
10Shabana506
Match preview
Our model makes KCB slight favourites, giving them a 43% chance of winning against 28% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.34 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.2 goals in total (0.98 for Nairobi United, 1.26 for KCB), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nairobi United sit 14th on 4 points; KCB are 2nd on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.