Over 1.5 goals@1.65
Over 1.5
61%
KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 3Sunday, 25 October 2026
Nairobi United
15th · 3 pts1–1FULL TIME
APS Bomet
7th · 5 pts29% Nairobi
30% Draw
41% APS
OUR PICK
APS Bomet to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.41
Expected goals
0.90 – 1.15
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.51X3.3322.41
Goals 2.5Over2.77Under1.51
Both scoreGG2.30NG1.68
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Under 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.68
NG
59%
Double chance@1.40
X2
71%
Season stats
Nairobi UnitedAPS Bomet1.3Goals per game1.0
1.5Conceded per game0.5
0.75Points per game1.25
0%Win rate25%
-1Goal difference2
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
Nairobi United form
No recent matches.
APS Bomet form
DWDLDH Murang'a SEAL0–0
H 3K3–0
A Nairobi United1–1
H GOR Mahia0–1
A Mathare United0–0
Head to head
1
Nairobi
3
Draw
1
APS
Oct 2026Nairobi United – APS Bomet1–1
Mar 2026APS Bomet – Nairobi United0–0
Feb 2026Nairobi United – APS Bomet1–2
Mar 2025APS Bomet – Nairobi United0–0
Nov 2024Nairobi United – APS Bomet1–0
FKF Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1GOR Mahia4+512
2KCB4+27
3Murang'a SEAL4+26
4Mara Sugar4+16
5AFC Leopards4+16
6Shabana4+16
7APS Bomet4+25
8Kenya Police405
9Mathare United405
103K4-25
Match preview
Our model makes APS Bomet slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 30% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.41 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.0 goals in total (0.90 for Nairobi United, 1.15 for APS Bomet), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nairobi United sit 15th on 3 points; APS Bomet are 7th on 5.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.