Over 1.5 goals@1.29
Over 1.5
78%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 14Saturday, 7 November 2026 · Toyota Stadium
Nagoya Grampus
11th · 14 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Kyoto Sanga
14th · 13 pts44% Nagoya
25% Draw
31% Kyoto
OUR PICK
Nagoya Grampus to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.27
Expected goals
1.57 – 1.28
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.27X4.0423.21
Goals 2.5Over1.84Under2.05
Both scoreGG1.75NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.84
Over 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.75
GG
57%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Nagoya GrampusKyoto Sanga1.2Goals per game1.3
1.6Conceded per game1.8
1.08Points per game1.00
31%Win rate23%
-6Goal difference-6
8Form, last 5 (pts)5
Nagoya Grampus form
LLDDWA Vissel Kobe3–1
H Urawa1–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos1–1
H Cerezo Osaka1–1
A Kashiwa Reysol1–3
Kyoto Sanga form
WWDDLH Shimizu S-pulse2–0
H Newcastle Jets5–2
A Gamba Osaka2–2
H Kashima2–2
A Sanfrecce Hiroshima3–0
Head to head
1
Nagoya
2
Draw
2
Kyoto
May 2026Nagoya Grampus – Kyoto Sanga3–0
Mar 2026Kyoto Sanga – Nagoya Grampus1–1
Aug 2025Nagoya Grampus – Kyoto Sanga1–2
May 2025Kyoto Sanga – Nagoya Grampus1–1
Aug 2024Kyoto Sanga – Nagoya Grampus3–2
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Nagoya Grampus slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.27 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.9 goals in total (1.57 for Nagoya Grampus, 1.28 for Kyoto Sanga), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nagoya Grampus sit 11th on 14 points; Kyoto Sanga are 14th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.