Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
JPNJ1 League · Matchday 11Wednesday, 21 October 2026 · Toyota Stadium
Nagoya Grampus
11th · 14 pts1–1FULL TIME
Cerezo Osaka
12th · 14 pts50% Nagoya
25% Draw
25% Cerezo
OUR PICK
Nagoya Grampus to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.63 – 1.09
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.00X4.0623.93
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.87NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.87
GG
53%
Double chance@1.33
12
75%
Season stats
Nagoya GrampusCerezo Osaka1.2Goals per game1.0
1.6Conceded per game1.8
1.08Points per game1.08
31%Win rate23%
-6Goal difference-10
8Form, last 5 (pts)3
Nagoya Grampus form
LLDDWA Vissel Kobe3–1
H Urawa1–2
H Yokohama F. Marinos1–1
H Cerezo Osaka1–1
A Kashiwa Reysol1–3
Cerezo Osaka form
LWDDLA Kashima4–1
A Mito Hollyhock1–3
H JEF United Chiba2–2
A Nagoya Grampus1–1
H Kawasaki Frontale2–4
Head to head
2
Nagoya
2
Draw
1
Cerezo
Oct 2026Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka1–1
May 2026Cerezo Osaka – Nagoya Grampus6–1
Apr 2026Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka3–0
Oct 2025Nagoya Grampus – Cerezo Osaka2–1
Mar 2025Cerezo Osaka – Nagoya Grampus1–1
J1 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Tokyo13+2330
2Sanfrecce Hiroshima13+2229
3Machida Zelvia13+2028
4Kashiwa Reysol13+1028
5Vissel Kobe13+926
6Kashima13+723
7Kawasaki Frontale13+522
8Yokohama F. Marinos13+621
9Urawa13-621
10Fagiano Okayama13-616
Match preview
Our model makes Nagoya Grampus slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.63 for Nagoya Grampus, 1.09 for Cerezo Osaka), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nagoya Grampus sit 11th on 14 points; Cerezo Osaka are 12th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.