Over 1.5 goals@1.30
Over 1.5
77%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 11Saturday, 7 November 2026
Nacional
15th · 7 pts16:30KICK-OFF WAT
Academico Viseu
6th · 20 pts26% Nacional
24% Draw
50% Academico
OUR PICK
Academico Viseu to win
Model probability 50% · fair odds
2.00
Expected goals
1.13 – 1.67
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.88X4.1222.00
Goals 2.5Over1.89Under2.01
Both scoreGG1.82NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.89
Over 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.82
GG
55%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
NacionalAcademico Viseu1.0Goals per game1.5
1.9Conceded per game1.2
0.70Points per game2.00
20%Win rate60%
-9Goal difference3
3Form, last 5 (pts)15
Nacional form
LWLLLA Arouca1–0
H SC Braga1–0
A Sanjoanense1–0
A Rio Ave3–2
H Famalicao0–4
Academico Viseu form
WLWLWH Rio Ave2–1
A FC Porto1–0
A Sporting CP1–2
A Fátima1–0
H Estoril2–1
Head to head
1
Nacional
3
Draw
1
Academico
Mar 2024Nacional – Academico Viseu1–1
Oct 2023Academico Viseu – Nacional1–1
May 2023Nacional – Academico Viseu3–2
Jan 2023Academico Viseu – Nacional1–1
May 2022Nacional – Academico Viseu1–2
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model makes Academico Viseu slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.00 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.8 goals in total (1.13 for Nacional, 1.67 for Academico Viseu), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Nacional sit 15th on 7 points; Academico Viseu are 6th on 20.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.