Over 1.5 goals@1.10
Over 1.5
91%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 10Friday, 9 October 2026 · Rat Verlegh Stadion
NAC Breda
6th · 21 pts1–0FULL TIME
MVV
11th · 17 pts65% NAC
17% Draw
18% MVV
OUR PICK
NAC Breda to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
2.67 – 1.36
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.54X5.8225.65
Goals 2.5Over1.31Under3.93
Both scoreGG1.45NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.31
Over 2.5
76%
Both teams to score@1.45
GG
69%
Double chance@1.21
12
83%
Season stats
NAC BredaMVV1.9Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game2.2
1.75Points per game1.31
50%Win rate38%
3Goal difference-12
11Form, last 5 (pts)1
NAC Breda form
WDWWDA JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3
H Heracles1–1
A Helmond Sport0–2
H MVV1–0
A Vitesse2–2
MVV form
LLDLLH VVV Venlo1–2
H Excelsior0–3
A Den Bosch2–2
H Heracles1–5
A NAC Breda1–0
Head to head
4
NAC
0
Draw
1
MVV
Oct 2026NAC Breda – MVV1–0
Mar 2024NAC Breda – MVV1–2
Nov 2023MVV – NAC Breda1–4
May 2023MVV – NAC Breda1–4
May 2023NAC Breda – MVV1–0
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes NAC Breda clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.0 goals in total (2.67 for NAC Breda, 1.36 for MVV), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NAC Breda sit 6th on 21 points; MVV are 11th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.