Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Rat Verlegh Stadion
NAC Breda
6th · 21 pts1–1FULL TIME
Heracles
1st · 29 pts25% NAC
19% Draw
57% Heracles
OUR PICK
Heracles to win
Model probability 57% · fair odds
1.77
Expected goals
1.63 – 2.50
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X214.07X5.3021.77
Goals 2.5Over1.28Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.35NG3.63
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.28
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.35
GG
74%
Double chance@1.23
12
81%
Season stats
NAC BredaHeracles1.9Goals per game3.1
1.7Conceded per game1.2
1.75Points per game2.42
50%Win rate75%
3Goal difference23
11Form, last 5 (pts)11
NAC Breda form
WDWWDA JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3
H Heracles1–1
A Helmond Sport0–2
H MVV1–0
A Vitesse2–2
Heracles form
LDWWDA De Treffers1–0
A NAC Breda1–1
A MVV1–5
H Waalwijk3–0
A Helmond Sport2–2
Head to head
2
NAC
2
Draw
1
Heracles
Oct 2026NAC Breda – Heracles1–1
Feb 2026Heracles – NAC Breda0–1
Oct 2025NAC Breda – Heracles1–4
Sept 2025NAC Breda – Heracles2–1
Jan 2025NAC Breda – Heracles1–1
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Almere City FC13+1425
4Roda13+525
5Emmen13+225
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Den Bosch13+218
9Vitesse12-117
10Jong AZ13+417
Match preview
Our model makes Heracles clear favourites, giving them a 57% chance of winning against 19% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.77 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.1 goals in total (1.63 for NAC Breda, 2.50 for Heracles), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
NAC Breda sit 6th on 21 points; Heracles are 1st on 29.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.