Over 1.5 goals@1.09
Over 1.5
92%
NEDEerste Divisie · Matchday 13Saturday, 31 October 2026 · De Geusselt
MVV
10th · 17 pts1–2FULL TIME
VVV Venlo
2nd · 28 pts19% MVV
17% Draw
63% VVV
OUR PICK
VVV Venlo to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.58
Expected goals
1.47 – 2.69
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.16X5.7421.58
Goals 2.5Over1.28Under4.29
Both scoreGG1.39NG3.37
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.28
Over 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.39
GG
72%
Double chance@1.21
12
83%
Season stats
MVVVVV Venlo1.3Goals per game2.8
2.2Conceded per game1.6
1.31Points per game2.15
38%Win rate69%
-12Goal difference15
1Form, last 5 (pts)13
MVV form
No recent matches.
VVV Venlo form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
MVV
0
Draw
0
VVV
These sides haven't met recently.
Eerste Divisie table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Heracles12+2329
2VVV Venlo13+1528
3Emmen12+725
4Almere City FC13+1425
5Roda13+525
6NAC Breda12+321
7FC Volendam13+819
8Vitesse12-117
9Jong AZ13+417
10MVV13-1217
Match preview
Our model makes VVV Venlo clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.58 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (1.47 for MVV, 2.69 for VVV Venlo), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
MVV sit 10th on 17 points; VVV Venlo are 2nd on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.