Over 1.5 goals@1.32
Over 1.5
75%
ZAMSuper League · Matchday 1Sunday, 4 October 2026
Mutondo Stars
9th · 0 pts1–3FULL TIME
Red Arrows
4th · 0 pts44% Mutondo
25% Draw
30% Red
OUR PICK
Mutondo Stars to win
Model probability 44% · fair odds
2.26
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.21
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.26X3.9423.28
Goals 2.5Over1.96Under1.93
Both scoreGG1.83NG2.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.96
Over 2.5
51%
Both teams to score@1.83
GG
55%
Double chance@1.34
12
75%
Season stats
Mutondo StarsRed Arrows0.0Goals per game0.0
0.0Conceded per game0.0
0.00Points per game0.00
0%Win rate0%
0Goal difference0
0Form, last 5 (pts)0
Mutondo Stars form
DLLLH Roan United1–1
A ZESCO United5–0
A Chirundu Utd3–0
A Kabwe Warriors3–2
Red Arrows form
DLWH Chirundu Utd0–0
A Kaizer Chiefs1–0
H Kaizer Chiefs1–0
Head to head
2
Mutondo
1
Draw
2
Red
Oct 2026Mutondo Stars – Red Arrows1–3
May 2026Mutondo Stars – Red Arrows1–0
Dec 2025Red Arrows – Mutondo Stars2–0
Feb 2025Red Arrows – Mutondo Stars0–0
Sept 2024Mutondo Stars – Red Arrows3–1
Super League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Zanaco000
2Nchanga Rangers000
3Nkana000
4Power Dynamos000
5Konkola Blades000
6NAPSA Stars000
7Man Utd Zambia Academy000
8Kansanshi Dynamos000
9Trident000
10Makeni All Stars000
Match preview
Our model makes Mutondo Stars slight favourites, giving them a 44% chance of winning against 25% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.26 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.7 goals in total (1.51 for Mutondo Stars, 1.21 for Red Arrows), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Mutondo Stars sit 9th on 0 points; Red Arrows are 4th on 0.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.