KENFKF Premier League · Matchday 4Wednesday, 28 October 2026

Murang'a SEAL

3rd · 6 pts

3–2FULL TIME

Nairobi United

15th · 3 pts

50% Murang'a

22% Draw

28% Nairobi

OUR PICK

Murang'a SEAL to win

Model probability 50% · fair odds

2.01

Expected goals

1.93 – 1.41

Confidence

Fair

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.01X4.5223.55

Goals 2.5Over1.54Under2.70

Both scoreGG1.55NG2.70

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.18

Over 1.5

85%

Over/Under 2.5@1.54

Over 2.5

65%

Both teams to score@1.55

65%

Double chance@1.28

78%

Season stats

Murang'a SEALNairobi United

2.8Goals per game1.3

2.3Conceded per game1.5

1.50Points per game0.75

50%Win rate0%

2Goal difference-1

6Form, last 5 (pts)3

Murang'a SEAL form

DWLWL

A APS Bomet0–0

H Nairobi United3–2

A 3K2–1

H Posta Rangers FC5–1

A GOR Mahia4–2

Nairobi United form

DLDDD

H Bandari1–1

A Murang'a SEAL3–2

H APS Bomet1–1

A Shabana0–0

H KCB2–2

Head to head

Murang'a

Draw

Nairobi

Oct 2026Murang'a SEAL – Nairobi United3–2

Apr 2026Murang'a SEAL – Nairobi United2–4

Dec 2025Nairobi United – Murang'a SEAL1–1

FKF Premier League table

#TeamGPGDPts

1GOR Mahia4+512

2KCB4+27

3Murang'a SEAL4+26

4Mara Sugar4+16

5AFC Leopards4+16

6Shabana4+16

7APS Bomet4+25

8Kenya Police405

9Mathare United405

103K4-25

Match preview

Our model makes Murang'a SEAL slight favourites, giving them a 50% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.01 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.93 for Murang'a SEAL, 1.41 for Nairobi United), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Murang'a SEAL sit 3rd on 6 points; Nairobi United are 15th on 3.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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