Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
BHRPremier League · Matchday 5Sunday, 18 October 2026
Muharraq
4th · 11 pts3–0FULL TIME
Malkiya
12th · 2 pts65% Muharraq
23% Draw
12% Malkiya
OUR PICK
Muharraq to win
Model probability 65% · fair odds
1.54
Expected goals
1.73 – 0.60
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.54X4.3928.06
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.55NG1.59
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.59
NG
63%
Double chance@1.14
1X
88%
Season stats
MuharraqMalkiya1.6Goals per game0.3
1.0Conceded per game1.9
1.57Points per game0.29
43%Win rate0%
4Goal difference-11
10Form, last 5 (pts)2
Muharraq form
WLWWWH Sitra4–0
A Al-Jazira4–2
A East Riffa0–1
H Malkiya3–0
H Gol Gohar2–0
Malkiya form
LDLDLA Al Ittifaq Maqaba3–0
H Al Ahli1–1
A Muharraq3–0
H Al Riffa1–1
A A'Ali1–0
Head to head
3
Muharraq
2
Draw
0
Malkiya
Oct 2026Muharraq – Malkiya3–0
Feb 2026Malkiya – Muharraq0–1
Sept 2025Muharraq – Malkiya1–1
Apr 2025Muharraq – Malkiya3–0
Sept 2024Malkiya – Muharraq1–1
Premier League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Al Riffa7+1115
2Khalidiya7+1015
3Al Ittifaq Maqaba7+514
4Muharraq7+411
5Al Ahli709
6East Riffa7-58
7Sitra7-28
8Al Najma7-48
9A'Ali7-38
10Al-Hidd707
Match preview
Our model makes Muharraq clear favourites, giving them a 65% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.54 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.73 for Muharraq, 0.60 for Malkiya), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Muharraq sit 4th on 11 points; Malkiya are 12th on 2.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.