Over 1.5 goals@1.13
Over 1.5
88%
HUNNB I · Matchday 10Friday, 16 October 2026 · Hidegkúti Nándor Stadion
MTK Budapest
11th · 12 pts1–0FULL TIME
Vasas
6th · 16 pts28% MTK
21% Draw
51% Vasas
OUR PICK
Vasas to win
Model probability 51% · fair odds
1.94
Expected goals
1.54 – 2.14
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.60X4.8021.94
Goals 2.5Over1.41Under3.25
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.41
Over 2.5
71%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.26
12
79%
Season stats
MTK BudapestVasas1.3Goals per game1.7
2.1Conceded per game1.4
1.00Points per game1.33
25%Win rate33%
-9Goal difference3
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
MTK Budapest form
LWLWLA Zalaegerszegi TE3–0
A Monori Se1–5
A Ferencvarosi TC5–0
H Vasas1–0
A Paks3–0
Vasas form
DWLLDA Gyori ETO FC2–2
A Szentlőrinc SE3–4
H Paks0–2
A MTK Budapest1–0
H Kisvarda FC1–1
Head to head
5
MTK
0
Draw
0
Vasas
Oct 2026MTK Budapest – Vasas1–0
Jul 2026MTK Budapest – Vasas3–1
Mar 2020MTK Budapest – Vasas3–1
Sept 2019Vasas – MTK Budapest1–4
Mar 2017MTK Budapest – Vasas1–0
NB I table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Gyori ETO FC12+722
2Puskas Academy12+221
3Ferencvarosi TC11+1020
4Debreceni VSC12+419
5Paks12+117
6Vasas12+316
7Ujpest11+215
8Budapest Honved11-313
9Zalaegerszegi TE12-613
10Kisvarda FC12-212
Match preview
Our model makes Vasas slight favourites, giving them a 51% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.94 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.7 goals in total (1.54 for MTK Budapest, 2.14 for Vasas), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
MTK Budapest sit 11th on 12 points; Vasas are 6th on 16.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.