Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
93%
GER3. Liga · Matchday 10Sunday, 18 October 2026 · MSV-Arena
MSV Duisburg
2nd · 26 pts1–1FULL TIME
FC Viktoria Köln
1st · 26 pts45% MSV
20% Draw
35% FC
OUR PICK
MSV Duisburg to win
Model probability 45% · fair odds
2.20
Expected goals
2.28 – 1.99
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.20X5.0322.88
Goals 2.5Over1.25Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.29NG4.29
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.29
GG
78%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
MSV DuisburgFC Viktoria Köln2.6Goals per game2.6
1.4Conceded per game1.3
2.17Points per game2.17
67%Win rate67%
14Goal difference16
8Form, last 5 (pts)11
MSV Duisburg form
DLDWWH Stuttgart II3–3
A FC Ingolstadt 042–1
H FC Viktoria Köln1–1
A FC Saarbrücken2–4
H Hoffenheim II3–2
FC Viktoria Köln form
WWDDWA Hoffenheim II0–1
H Verl3–1
A MSV Duisburg1–1
H SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach2–2
A Alemannia Aachen2–5
Head to head
1
MSV
3
Draw
1
FC
Oct 2026MSV Duisburg – FC Viktoria Köln1–1
May 2026MSV Duisburg – FC Viktoria Köln1–1
Dec 2025FC Viktoria Köln – MSV Duisburg0–0
Feb 2024MSV Duisburg – FC Viktoria Koln1–0
Sept 2023FC Viktoria Koln – MSV Duisburg2–0
3. Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Viktoria Köln12+1626
2MSV Duisburg12+1426
3Rot-Weiß Essen11+621
4FC Saarbrücken12+720
5SV Wehen12+618
6FC Ingolstadt 0412-118
7Alemannia Aachen11017
8Waldhof Mannheim12+216
9Hoffenheim II12+116
10Fortuna Düsseldorf12-216
Match preview
Our model makes MSV Duisburg slight favourites, giving them a 45% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.20 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (2.28 for MSV Duisburg, 1.99 for FC Viktoria Köln), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
MSV Duisburg sit 2nd on 26 points; FC Viktoria Köln are 1st on 26.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.