Over 1.5 goals@1.37
Over 1.5
73%
POLEkstraklasa · Matchday 12Friday, 23 October 2026 · Motor Lublin Arena
Motor Lublin
11th · 16 pts2–2FULL TIME
Zaglebie Lubin
8th · 19 pts40% Motor
26% Draw
34% Zaglebie
OUR PICK
Motor Lublin to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.23
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.51X3.7922.96
Goals 2.5Over1.97Under1.92
Both scoreGG1.90NG2.01
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.92
Under 2.5
52%
Both teams to score@1.90
GG
53%
Double chance@1.36
12
74%
Season stats
Motor LublinZaglebie Lubin1.5Goals per game1.3
1.7Conceded per game1.3
1.23Points per game1.58
31%Win rate42%
-3Goal difference0
11Form, last 5 (pts)7
Motor Lublin form
WDDWWA Cracovia Krakow1–2
H Raków Częstochowa1–1
H Zaglebie Lubin2–2
H Slask Wroclaw3–2
A Radomiak Radom2–3
Zaglebie Lubin form
DWLWLA Motor Lublin2–2
H Jagiellonia1–0
A Cracovia Krakow3–1
H Miedz Legnica1–0
H Wisla Plock0–2
Head to head
3
Motor
2
Draw
0
Zaglebie
Oct 2026Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin2–2
Mar 2026Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Sept 2025Zaglebie Lubin – Motor Lublin2–2
May 2025Motor Lublin – Zaglebie Lubin1–0
Nov 2024Zaglebie Lubin – Motor Lublin1–2
Ekstraklasa table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lech Poznan12+2131
2Gornik Zabrze13+1028
3Legia Warszawa13+1224
4Pogon Szczecin11+1024
5GKS Katowice13+621
6Piast Gliwice13+421
7Wisla Krakow13+221
8Zaglebie Lubin12019
9Jagiellonia12-118
10Korona Kielce12-418
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Motor Lublin 40%, the draw 26%, Zaglebie Lubin 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.6 goals in total (1.36 for Motor Lublin, 1.23 for Zaglebie Lubin), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Motor Lublin sit 11th on 16 points; Zaglebie Lubin are 8th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.