Over 1.5 goals@1.22
Over 1.5
82%
SCOPremiership · Matchday 8Sunday, 11 October 2026 · Fir Park
Motherwell
9th · 12 pts0–2FULL TIME
Celtic
1st · 28 pts19% Motherwell
21% Draw
59% Celtic
OUR PICK
Celtic to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.68
Expected goals
1.08 – 2.04
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.13X4.7521.68
Goals 2.5Over1.66Under2.36
Both scoreGG1.74NG2.19
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.66
Over 2.5
60%
Both teams to score@1.74
GG
57%
Double chance@1.24
X2
81%
Season stats
MotherwellCeltic1.2Goals per game2.3
1.7Conceded per game0.8
1.00Points per game2.33
25%Win rate75%
-6Goal difference17
4Form, last 5 (pts)10
Motherwell form
WDLLLH ST Mirren1–0
A ST Johnstone2–2
H Heart Of Midlothian0–2
A Kilmarnock3–2
H Celtic0–2
Celtic form
LDWLWA Falkirk2–0
H Dundee Utd2–2
A Hibernian1–2
H Celta Vigo1–2
H Heart Of Midlothian7–1
Head to head
1
Motherwell
0
Draw
4
Celtic
Oct 2026Motherwell – Celtic0–2
May 2026Motherwell – Celtic2–3
Mar 2026Celtic – Motherwell3–1
Dec 2025Motherwell – Celtic2–0
Oct 2025Celtic – Motherwell3–2
Premiership table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Celtic12+1728
2Rangers11+1024
3Heart Of Midlothian11+720
4Falkirk12+318
5Dundee11+417
6Dundee Utd11016
7ST Johnstone12-414
8ST Mirren12-814
9Motherwell12-612
10Aberdeen11-211
Match preview
Our model makes Celtic clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 21% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.68 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.08 for Motherwell, 2.04 for Celtic), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Motherwell sit 9th on 12 points; Celtic are 1st on 28.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.