Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
93%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 24Monday, 5 October 2026
Moss
14th · 29 pts0–2FULL TIME
Kongsvinger
3rd · 59 pts20% Moss
17% Draw
63% Kongsvinger
OUR PICK
Kongsvinger to win
Model probability 63% · fair odds
1.59
Expected goals
1.53 – 2.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.06X5.8121.59
Goals 2.5Over1.25Under4.72
Both scoreGG1.36NG3.49
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.25
Over 2.5
80%
Both teams to score@1.36
GG
73%
Double chance@1.21
12
83%
Season stats
MossKongsvinger1.4Goals per game2.9
2.1Conceded per game1.6
1.00Points per game2.03
28%Win rate62%
-21Goal difference36
4Form, last 5 (pts)6
Moss form
LLLDWA Stromsgodset3–0
H Asane1–3
A Lyn1–0
H Egersund0–0
A Raufoss1–2
Kongsvinger form
LLLWLH Stabaek1–2
A Pors Grenland3–1
A Sogndal3–1
H Sandnes ULF4–0
A Stromsgodset5–1
Head to head
1
Moss
0
Draw
4
Kongsvinger
Oct 2026Moss – Kongsvinger0–2
Apr 2026Kongsvinger – Moss2–1
Oct 2025Moss – Kongsvinger2–4
Apr 2025Kongsvinger – Moss6–0
Dec 2024Moss – Kongsvinger3–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger29+3659
4Stabaek29+3358
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model makes Kongsvinger clear favourites, giving them a 63% chance of winning against 17% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.59 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.3 goals in total (1.53 for Moss, 2.75 for Kongsvinger), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Moss sit 14th on 29 points; Kongsvinger are 3rd on 59.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.