Over 1.5 goals@1.15
Over 1.5
87%
NOR1. Division · Matchday 26Wednesday, 14 October 2026
Moss
14th · 29 pts0–0FULL TIME
Egersund
8th · 38 pts40% Moss
22% Draw
38% Egersund
OUR PICK
Moss to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.51
Expected goals
1.81 – 1.77
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.51X4.5422.62
Goals 2.5Over1.44Under3.04
Both scoreGG1.44NG3.04
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.44
Over 2.5
69%
Both teams to score@1.44
GG
69%
Double chance@1.28
12
78%
Season stats
MossEgersund1.4Goals per game1.7
2.1Conceded per game2.0
1.00Points per game1.31
28%Win rate34%
-21Goal difference-9
4Form, last 5 (pts)9
Moss form
LLLDWA Stromsgodset3–0
H Asane1–3
A Lyn1–0
H Egersund0–0
A Raufoss1–2
Egersund form
WWDDDH Strommen3–1
H Bryne1–0
A Bryne3–3
H Sogndal3–3
A Moss0–0
Head to head
0
Moss
1
Draw
4
Egersund
Oct 2026Moss – Egersund0–0
Jul 2026Egersund – Moss3–0
Oct 2025Egersund – Moss2–0
Jun 2025Moss – Egersund2–4
Aug 2024Egersund – Moss3–2
1. Division table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Haugesund29+3665
2Stromsgodset29+4563
3Kongsvinger29+3659
4Stabaek29+3358
5ODD Ballklubb29+1146
6Bryne29+243
7Ranheim29+441
8Egersund29-938
9hodd29-1038
10Strommen29-1236
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Moss 40%, the draw 22%, Egersund 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.51 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.6 goals in total (1.81 for Moss, 1.77 for Egersund), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Moss sit 14th on 29 points; Egersund are 8th on 38.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.