Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
71%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 9Saturday, 3 October 2026 · Cappielow Park
Morton
9th · 10 pts1–2FULL TIME
Raith Rovers
2nd · 24 pts18% Morton
24% Draw
59% Raith
OUR PICK
Raith Rovers to win
Model probability 59% · fair odds
1.71
Expected goals
0.81 – 1.70
Confidence
Medium
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X215.67X4.2021.71
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG2.10NG1.83
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.83
NG
55%
Double chance@1.21
X2
82%
Season stats
MortonRaith Rovers1.0Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game0.7
0.83Points per game1.85
25%Win rate54%
-8Goal difference11
9Form, last 5 (pts)10
Morton form
WWWLA Partick2–3
H Queen's Park2–0
A Arbroath1–2
H Raith Rovers1–2
Raith Rovers form
WLDWWA Arbroath0–4
H Inverness CT0–2
A Stenhousemuir1–1
H Queen's Park2–0
A Morton1–2
Head to head
0
Morton
2
Draw
3
Raith
Oct 2026Morton – Raith Rovers1–2
Apr 2026Raith Rovers – Morton3–2
Feb 2026Morton – Raith Rovers0–0
Nov 2025Raith Rovers – Morton1–1
Sept 2025Morton – Raith Rovers0–1
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model makes Raith Rovers clear favourites, giving them a 59% chance of winning against 24% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 1.71 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (0.81 for Morton, 1.70 for Raith Rovers), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Morton sit 9th on 10 points; Raith Rovers are 2nd on 24.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.