Over 1.5 goals@1.38
Over 1.5
72%
SCOChampionship · Matchday 12Saturday, 24 October 2026 · Cappielow Park
Morton
9th · 10 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Ayr Utd
7th · 15 pts33% Morton
27% Draw
40% Ayr
OUR PICK
Ayr Utd to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.49
Expected goals
1.20 – 1.35
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X213.02X3.7622.49
Goals 2.5Over2.01Under1.88
Both scoreGG1.93NG1.97
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.88
Under 2.5
53%
Both teams to score@1.93
GG
52%
Double chance@1.36
12
73%
Season stats
MortonAyr Utd1.0Goals per game1.1
1.7Conceded per game1.2
0.83Points per game1.25
25%Win rate33%
-8Goal difference-1
9Form, last 5 (pts)7
Morton form
WWWLA Partick2–3
H Queen's Park2–0
A Arbroath1–2
H Raith Rovers1–2
Ayr Utd form
WLDWH Queen's Park3–2
H Partick0–1
H Dunfermline1–1
A Livingston1–2
Head to head
1
Morton
3
Draw
1
Ayr
Aug 2026Ayr Utd – Morton1–1
Mar 2026Ayr Utd – Morton0–1
Dec 2025Morton – Ayr Utd1–1
Oct 2025Ayr Utd – Morton2–1
Aug 2025Morton – Ayr Utd2–2
Championship table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Partick13+1025
2Raith Rovers13+1124
3Dunfermline13+824
4Stenhousemuir13+123
5Livingston13+720
6Inverness CT13+119
7Ayr Utd12-115
8Arbroath13-1511
9Morton12-810
10Queen's Park13-147
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Morton 33%, the draw 27%, Ayr Utd 40%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.49 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.20 for Morton, 1.35 for Ayr Utd), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Morton sit 9th on 10 points; Ayr Utd are 7th on 15.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.