Over 1.5 goals@1.48
Over 1.5
68%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 8Friday, 9 October 2026 · Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas
Moreirense
9th · 14 pts0–1FULL TIME
GIL Vicente
7th · 14 pts38% Moreirense
28% Draw
34% GIL
OUR PICK
Moreirense to win
Model probability 38% · fair odds
2.62
Expected goals
1.21 – 1.12
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.62X3.5622.96
Goals 2.5Over2.30Under1.70
Both scoreGG2.01NG1.90
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.70
Under 2.5
59%
Both teams to score@1.90
NG
53%
Double chance@1.39
12
72%
Season stats
MoreirenseGIL Vicente1.3Goals per game0.9
1.7Conceded per game0.8
1.40Points per game1.56
40%Win rate44%
-4Goal difference1
10Form, last 5 (pts)7
Moreirense form
WWLLDH Estrela2–1
A Estoril1–3
A AVS1–0
H GIL Vicente0–1
A Vitória SC1–1
GIL Vicente form
LLWWWA Benfica4–1
H FC Porto0–1
A SC Braga1–2
A União Santarém2–3
A Moreirense0–1
Head to head
0
Moreirense
0
Draw
0
GIL
These sides haven't met recently.
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara10+921
5Arouca10+620
6Academico Viseu10+320
7GIL Vicente9+114
8SC Braga10+114
9Moreirense10-414
10Alverca9011
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Moreirense 38%, the draw 28%, GIL Vicente 34%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.62 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.3 goals in total (1.21 for Moreirense, 1.12 for GIL Vicente), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Moreirense sit 9th on 14 points; GIL Vicente are 7th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.