Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
85%
PORPrimeira Liga · Matchday 10Saturday, 31 October 2026 · Parque Joaquim Almeida Freitas
Moreirense
8th · 14 pts2–1FULL TIME
Estrela
12th · 10 pts46% Moreirense
22% Draw
32% Estrela
OUR PICK
Moreirense to win
Model probability 46% · fair odds
2.17
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.53
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.17X4.4923.16
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.51NG2.77
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.51
GG
66%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
MoreirenseEstrela1.3Goals per game1.5
1.7Conceded per game1.9
1.40Points per game1.00
40%Win rate20%
-4Goal difference-4
10Form, last 5 (pts)1
Moreirense form
No recent matches.
Estrela form
No recent matches.
Head to head
0
Moreirense
0
Draw
0
Estrela
These sides haven't met recently.
Primeira Liga table
#TeamGPGDPts
1FC Porto10+2130
2Benfica9+1822
3Sporting CP10+1221
4Santa Clara9+718
5Arouca9+517
6Academico Viseu9+217
7GIL Vicente9+114
8Moreirense10-414
9Alverca9011
10SC Braga9-211
Match preview
Our model makes Moreirense slight favourites, giving them a 46% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.17 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.88 for Moreirense, 1.53 for Estrela), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Moreirense sit 8th on 14 points; Estrela are 12th on 10.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.