Over 1.5 goals@1.17
Over 1.5
86%
ITASerie A · Matchday 9Wednesday, 28 October 2026 · Stadio Brianteo
Monza
16th · 7 pts1–4FULL TIME
Napoli
8th · 14 pts39% Monza
23% Draw
38% Napoli
OUR PICK
Monza to win
Model probability 39% · fair odds
2.56
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.70
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.56X4.4322.61
Goals 2.5Over1.51Under2.77
Both scoreGG1.49NG2.86
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.51
Over 2.5
66%
Both teams to score@1.49
GG
67%
Double chance@1.29
12
77%
Season stats
MonzaNapoli1.7Goals per game1.7
2.4Conceded per game1.3
0.70Points per game1.40
20%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference4
3Form, last 5 (pts)7
Monza form
LLLWLA Bologna2–1
H Napoli1–4
A Torino3–2
H Cagliari4–0
A Lazio3–1
Napoli form
LWDWLA Juventus2–0
A Monza1–4
H AS Roma3–3
H Bodo/Glimt4–3
A Venezia1–0
Head to head
0
Monza
1
Draw
4
Napoli
Oct 2026Monza – Napoli1–4
Apr 2025Monza – Napoli0–1
Sept 2024Napoli – Monza2–0
Apr 2024Monza – Napoli2–4
Dec 2023Napoli – Monza0–0
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Monza 39%, the draw 23%, Napoli 38%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.56 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.4 goals in total (1.72 for Monza, 1.70 for Napoli), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monza sit 16th on 7 points; Napoli are 8th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.