Over 1.5 goals@1.26
Over 1.5
79%
ITASerie A · Matchday 7Monday, 19 October 2026 · Stadio Brianteo
Monza
18th · 7 pts4–0FULL TIME
Cagliari
12th · 13 pts34% Monza
24% Draw
41% Cagliari
OUR PICK
Cagliari to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.43
Expected goals
1.40 – 1.55
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.90X4.0922.43
Goals 2.5Over1.77Under2.19
Both scoreGG1.68NG2.30
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.77
Over 2.5
57%
Both teams to score@1.68
GG
59%
Double chance@1.32
12
76%
Season stats
MonzaCagliari1.7Goals per game0.9
2.4Conceded per game1.5
0.70Points per game1.30
20%Win rate40%
-7Goal difference-6
3Form, last 5 (pts)1
Monza form
LLLWLA Bologna2–1
H Napoli1–4
A Torino3–2
H Cagliari4–0
A Lazio3–1
Cagliari form
LLLLDA Lazio2–1
A AS Roma4–2
H Bologna0–2
A Monza4–0
H Juventus1–1
Head to head
2
Monza
1
Draw
2
Cagliari
Oct 2026Monza – Cagliari4–0
Mar 2025Cagliari – Monza3–0
Jan 2025Monza – Cagliari1–2
Mar 2024Monza – Cagliari1–0
Nov 2023Cagliari – Monza1–1
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Monza 34%, the draw 24%, Cagliari 41%.
Our fair price for "Away win" is 2.43 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.0 goals in total (1.40 for Monza, 1.55 for Cagliari), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monza sit 18th on 7 points; Cagliari are 12th on 13.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.