Over 1.5 goals@1.08
Over 1.5
92%
ITASerie A · Matchday 11Sunday, 8 November 2026
Monza
16th · 7 pts15:00KICK-OFF WAT
Atalanta
13th · 11 pts40% Monza
20% Draw
40% Atalanta
OUR PICK
Monza to win
Model probability 40% · fair odds
2.48
Expected goals
2.12 – 2.10
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.48X4.9622.53
Goals 2.5Over1.26Under4.49
Both scoreGG1.29NG4.10
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.26
Over 2.5
79%
Both teams to score@1.29
GG
77%
Double chance@1.25
12
80%
Season stats
MonzaAtalanta1.7Goals per game1.8
2.4Conceded per game1.9
0.70Points per game1.22
20%Win rate33%
-7Goal difference-1
3Form, last 5 (pts)5
Monza form
LLLWLA Bologna2–1
H Napoli1–4
A Torino3–2
H Cagliari4–0
A Lazio3–1
Atalanta form
LDDLLH Parma0–3
A Fiorentina2–2
H Frosinone4–4
A Ajax2–0
A AC Milan3–2
Head to head
0
Monza
0
Draw
5
Atalanta
May 2025Monza – Atalanta0–4
Oct 2024Atalanta – Monza2–0
Apr 2024Monza – Atalanta1–2
Sept 2023Atalanta – Monza3–0
Jun 2023Atalanta – Monza5–2
Serie A table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Lazio10+1628
2Inter10+1325
3AS Roma10+1824
4Como10+1023
5AC Milan10+921
6Frosinone10+1020
7Juventus10+317
8Napoli10+414
9Bologna10+114
10Torino10-213
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Monza 40%, the draw 20%, Atalanta 40%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.48 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 4.2 goals in total (2.12 for Monza, 2.10 for Atalanta), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monza sit 16th on 7 points; Atalanta are 13th on 11.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.