Over 1.5 goals@1.39
Over 1.5
72%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 12Friday, 6 November 2026 · Stade de la Mosson
Montpellier
2nd · 24 pts20:00KICK-OFF WAT
Metz
10th · 14 pts62% Montpellier
23% Draw
15% Metz
OUR PICK
Montpellier to win
Model probability 62% · fair odds
1.61
Expected goals
1.78 – 0.75
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.61X4.4026.53
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.86
Both scoreGG2.14NG1.78
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.86
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.78
NG
56%
Double chance@1.18
1X
85%
Season stats
MontpellierMetz1.5Goals per game1.5
0.5Conceded per game1.5
2.18Points per game1.27
64%Win rate27%
10Goal difference0
13Form, last 5 (pts)5
Montpellier form
WWWWDA Annecy0–3
H RED Star FC 932–1
A Rodez0–3
H Grenoble2–0
A Reims1–1
Metz form
LDWLDH PAU1–3
A Dunkerque1–1
H Sochaux3–2
A Dijon4–2
H Saint Etienne2–2
Head to head
4
Montpellier
1
Draw
0
Metz
Jan 2026Metz – Montpellier0–4
Feb 2024Montpellier – Metz3–0
Dec 2023Metz – Montpellier0–1
May 2022Montpellier – Metz2–2
Dec 2021Metz – Montpellier1–3
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3PAU11+520
4Nancy10+419
5Reims10+818
6RED Star FC 9310+117
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes Montpellier clear favourites, giving them a 62% chance of winning against 23% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.61 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.78 for Montpellier, 0.75 for Metz), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Montpellier sit 2nd on 24 points; Metz are 10th on 14.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.