Over 1.5 goals@1.40
Over 1.5
72%
FRALigue 2 · Matchday 8Friday, 9 October 2026 · Stade de la Mosson
Montpellier
2nd · 24 pts2–0FULL TIME
Grenoble
18th · 8 pts69% Montpellier
20% Draw
10% Grenoble
OUR PICK
Montpellier to win
Model probability 69% · fair odds
1.44
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.59
Confidence
High
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X211.44X4.9529.56
Goals 2.5Over2.05Under1.85
Both scoreGG2.48NG1.62
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.85
Under 2.5
54%
Both teams to score@1.62
NG
62%
Double chance@1.12
1X
90%
Season stats
MontpellierGrenoble1.5Goals per game0.9
0.5Conceded per game1.8
2.18Points per game0.73
64%Win rate18%
10Goal difference-10
13Form, last 5 (pts)1
Montpellier form
WWWWDA Annecy0–3
H RED Star FC 932–1
A Rodez0–3
H Grenoble2–0
A Reims1–1
Grenoble form
LLLLDH Dijon1–3
A PAU2–1
H Boulogne0–2
A Montpellier2–0
H Stade Lausanne-Ouchy0–0
Head to head
2
Montpellier
1
Draw
0
Grenoble
Oct 2026Montpellier – Grenoble2–0
Apr 2026Montpellier – Grenoble2–1
Dec 2025Grenoble – Montpellier1–1
Ligue 2 table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Saint Etienne11+1225
2Montpellier11+1024
3Nancy11+722
4Reims11+1021
5PAU11+520
6RED Star FC 9311-217
7Annecy11-116
8Dijon11+115
9Guingamp11+114
10Metz11014
Match preview
Our model makes Montpellier clear favourites, giving them a 69% chance of winning against 20% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 1.44 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 2.5 goals in total (1.93 for Montpellier, 0.59 for Grenoble), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Montpellier sit 2nd on 24 points; Grenoble are 18th on 8.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.