MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 14Sunday, 25 October 2026 · Estadio BBVA

Monterrey

9th · 21 pts

0–1FULL TIME

Guadalajara Chivas

2nd · 29 pts

39% Monterrey

24% Draw

37% Guadalajara

OUR PICK

Monterrey to win

Model probability 39% · fair odds

2.57

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.51

Confidence

Low

Fair odds

From our model, no margin

1X212.57X4.1622.69

Goals 2.5Over1.70Under2.30

Both scoreGG1.63NG2.42

Every market, one match

Over 1.5 goals@1.24

Over 1.5

81%

Over/Under 2.5@1.70

Over 2.5

59%

Both teams to score@1.63

61%

Double chance@1.32

76%

Season stats

MonterreyGuadalajara Chivas

1.9Goals per game1.7

1.5Conceded per game0.9

1.50Points per game1.93

43%Win rate53%

5Goal difference11

8Form, last 5 (pts)11

Monterrey form

DLWWD

H Club Tijuana3–3

H Guadalajara Chivas0–1

A Puebla1–4

H CF Pachuca2–1

A Club America1–1

Guadalajara Chivas form

WWWDD

H Atlante FC4–2

A Monterrey0–1

H Necaxa1–0

H Tigres UANL1–1

A Atlas1–1

Head to head

Monterrey

Draw

Guadalajara

Oct 2026Monterrey – Guadalajara Chivas0–1

Mar 2026Monterrey – Guadalajara Chivas2–3

Nov 2025Guadalajara Chivas – Monterrey4–2

Apr 2025Monterrey – Guadalajara Chivas3–1

Sept 2024Guadalajara Chivas – Monterrey1–1

Liga MX table

#TeamGPGDPts

1Club America15+1529

2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129

3Cruz Azul15+1029

4Atlas15027

5Toluca15+1024

6Club Tijuana15+422

7Leon15+222

8Santos Laguna15+122

9Monterrey14+521

10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220

Match preview

Our model sees little between the sides: Monterrey 39%, the draw 24%, Guadalajara Chivas 37%.

Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.57 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.

We expect 3.1 goals in total (1.55 for Monterrey, 1.51 for Guadalajara Chivas), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.

Monterrey sit 9th on 21 points; Guadalajara Chivas are 2nd on 29.

Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.

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