Over 1.5 goals@1.19
Over 1.5
84%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 15Sunday, 1 November 2026 · Estadio BBVA
Monterrey
9th · 21 pts3–3FULL TIME
Club Tijuana
6th · 22 pts48% Monterrey
22% Draw
30% Club
OUR PICK
Monterrey to win
Model probability 48% · fair odds
2.10
Expected goals
1.87 – 1.44
Confidence
Fair
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.10X4.4523.36
Goals 2.5Over1.56Under2.62
Both scoreGG1.55NG2.70
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.56
Over 2.5
64%
Both teams to score@1.55
GG
65%
Double chance@1.29
12
78%
Season stats
MonterreyClub Tijuana1.9Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.4
1.50Points per game1.47
43%Win rate33%
5Goal difference4
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Monterrey form
DLWWDH Club Tijuana3–3
H Guadalajara Chivas0–1
A Puebla1–4
H CF Pachuca2–1
A Club America1–1
Club Tijuana form
DDWDDA Monterrey3–3
A Club America1–1
H Santos Laguna4–1
A Toluca2–2
H Puebla0–0
Head to head
0
Monterrey
4
Draw
1
Club
Nov 2026Monterrey – Club Tijuana3–3
Feb 2026Monterrey – Club Tijuana2–2
Oct 2025Club Tijuana – Monterrey2–2
Mar 2025Monterrey – Club Tijuana1–2
Aug 2024Club Tijuana – Monterrey2–2
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model makes Monterrey slight favourites, giving them a 48% chance of winning against 22% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.10 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.3 goals in total (1.87 for Monterrey, 1.44 for Club Tijuana), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monterrey sit 9th on 21 points; Club Tijuana are 6th on 22.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.