Over 1.5 goals@1.21
Over 1.5
83%
MEXLiga MX · Apertura - 12Monday, 19 October 2026 · Estadio BBVA
Monterrey
9th · 21 pts2–1FULL TIME
CF Pachuca
12th · 19 pts42% Monterrey
23% Draw
35% CF
OUR PICK
Monterrey to win
Model probability 42% · fair odds
2.40
Expected goals
1.67 – 1.51
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.40X4.2722.87
Goals 2.5Over1.62Under2.48
Both scoreGG1.58NG2.55
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.62
Over 2.5
62%
Both teams to score@1.58
GG
63%
Double chance@1.31
12
77%
Season stats
MonterreyCF Pachuca1.9Goals per game1.7
1.5Conceded per game1.3
1.50Points per game1.27
43%Win rate33%
5Goal difference6
8Form, last 5 (pts)7
Monterrey form
DLWWDH Club Tijuana3–3
H Guadalajara Chivas0–1
A Puebla1–4
H CF Pachuca2–1
A Club America1–1
CF Pachuca form
WWLLDH Tigres UANL3–0
A Club America1–2
H Cruz Azul1–2
A Monterrey2–1
H Necaxa3–3
Head to head
1
Monterrey
0
Draw
4
CF
Oct 2026Monterrey – CF Pachuca2–1
Apr 2026Monterrey – CF Pachuca1–3
Jul 2025CF Pachuca – Monterrey3–0
Apr 2025Monterrey – CF Pachuca1–2
Jan 2025Monterrey – CF Pachuca2–3
Liga MX table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Club America15+1529
2Guadalajara Chivas15+1129
3Cruz Azul15+1029
4Atlas15027
5Toluca15+1024
6Club Tijuana15+422
7Leon15+222
8Santos Laguna15+122
9Monterrey14+521
10U.N.A.M. - Pumas15-220
Match preview
Our model sees little between the sides: Monterrey 42%, the draw 23%, CF Pachuca 35%.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.40 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 3.2 goals in total (1.67 for Monterrey, 1.51 for CF Pachuca), which points to Over 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Monterrey sit 9th on 21 points; CF Pachuca are 12th on 19.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.