Over 1.5 goals@2.10
Over 1.5
48%
JPNJ2 League · Matchday 15Tuesday, 3 November 2026 · ND Soft Stadium Yamagata
Montedio Yamagata
16th · 16 pts06:00KICK-OFF WAT
Tokushima Vortis
14th · 17 pts41% Montedio
35% Draw
25% Tokushima
OUR PICK
Montedio Yamagata to win
Model probability 41% · fair odds
2.46
Expected goals
0.94 – 0.66
Confidence
Low
Fair odds
From our model, no margin1X212.46X2.8724.06
Goals 2.5Over4.29Under1.28
Both scoreGG3.25NG1.42
Every market, one match
Over/Under 2.5@1.28
Under 2.5
78%
Both teams to score@1.42
NG
71%
Double chance@1.33
1X
75%
Season stats
Montedio YamagataTokushima Vortis0.9Goals per game0.8
1.0Conceded per game1.0
1.14Points per game1.21
36%Win rate36%
-1Goal difference-3
4Form, last 5 (pts)4
Montedio Yamagata form
WLLDLA Vanraure Hachinohe1–2
H Tegevajaro Miyazaki0–2
H Consadole Sapporo0–2
A Fujieda MYFC0–0
H Vegalta Sendai0–1
Tokushima Vortis form
LWLDLH Yokohama FC0–1
A Fujieda MYFC0–1
H Vanraure Hachinohe0–1
A Vegalta Sendai0–0
H Imabari1–2
Head to head
1
Montedio
1
Draw
3
Tokushima
Aug 2025Tokushima Vortis – Montedio Yamagata1–0
Mar 2025Montedio Yamagata – Tokushima Vortis0–0
Aug 2024Montedio Yamagata – Tokushima Vortis1–0
Apr 2024Tokushima Vortis – Montedio Yamagata2–1
Oct 2023Montedio Yamagata – Tokushima Vortis0–1
J2 League table
#TeamGPGDPts
1Vegalta Sendai14+1027
2Albirex Niigata14-326
3Kataller Toyama14+1225
4Yokohama FC14+1025
5Omiya Ardija14+824
6Tegevajaro Miyazaki14+523
7Shonan Bellmare14+222
8Iwaki14+320
9Consadole Sapporo14-220
10Oita Trinita14+519
Match preview
Our model makes Montedio Yamagata slight favourites, giving them a 41% chance of winning against 35% for the draw.
Our fair price for "Home win" is 2.46 — the pick only has value at a bookmaker price above that.
We expect 1.6 goals in total (0.94 for Montedio Yamagata, 0.66 for Tokushima Vortis), which points to Under 2.5 as a secondary angle.
Montedio Yamagata sit 16th on 16 points; Tokushima Vortis are 14th on 17.
Check team news before kick-off — a late change to either line-up moves the numbers.